From Bank of Italy we receive a renewed optimism regarding the recovery of the economy, in fact, from the latest macro-economic data, there seems to be a rebound of the industry of 34%, 6 in the third trimester. Despite this, the future remains uphill as the July estimate confirms a decline of the GDP of 9.5% in 2020, even if the strengthening of economic activity should translate into a real GDP growth of 6 per cent in 2021.
Istat also notes that the Italian economy has shown peculiarities that could indicate a more incisive recovery compared to the main European countries, from the confidence of businesses and households in September to retail sales and industrial production in August, which showed a more pronounced rise compared to other countries such as France + 20.7%, Germany + 10.5% and Spain 21.7%.
Even the President of the parliamentary budget office, Giuseppe Pisauro, affirm that due to a decline in real GDP of 9.5% in 2020, an increase in economic activity is expected to be because of higher investment growth and to a lesser extent by consumer spending for 2021.
However, the Bank of Italy warns about the prospect of a “150% dangerous debt.” A public debt considered sustainable but that, being very high, leaves Italy exposed to risks related to the evolution of the pandemic, as well as to financial tensions or new economic shocks which, consequently, it must be reduced in the medium term.
Elaboration by IICUAE on sourse Repubblica