The US rating agency Fitch raised Italy’s rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook. A promotion that, explain the economists of the agency, is mainly due to the strong economic recovery that has had the effect of improving public accounts starting from deficits and debt. In fact, Fitch expects a deficit for Italy of 8.9% in 2021, a marked improvement on the previous estimate of 11.4%. Debt is likely to drop below 154% of GDP by the end of 2021 from its peak of 155.6% at the end of 2020.
“Fitch’s decision to raise Italy’s rating to BBB – comments the Ministry of Economy – crowns a series of positive evaluations released by five other rating agencies, which in recent weeks have improved their outlook on the country”. The Treasury underlines that “the importance of the NRP presented by the government” is recognized, which, by stimulating growth, will make the public debt “even more sustainable”.
The GDP growth forecast for this year is 6.2% while the quarterly economic growth was 2.7% and 2.6% in the second quarter of this year and in the third quarter respectively, ” above the entire Euro area “. Fitch expects “GDP to reach pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2022”. For the next year, growth will be 4.3%. As for 2023, the economy is expected to expand by 2.3%.
According to the OECD, GDP – from 5.9% previously estimated – will rise by 6.3% at the end of the year, followed by an increase of 4.6% (from 4.1%) in 2022 and 2.6% % in 2023. Better than the United States, better than the Eurozone countries, although it should be remembered that our country has recovered from a record fall in GDP in 2020 (-9%), much more pronounced than the other countries in the World (-3, 4%) and in the Euro area (-6.5%).
Source: La Repubblica